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Space Weather Products

  • Auroral Boundary and Particle Precipitation Nowcasting

    The Auroral Ovals software package is designed to provide AFSWC the capability to monitor the auroral oval position. Additionally, a one-hour forecast of auroral power is made based on the particle precipitation data (specifically using the polar cap size and the ion isotropy boundary). The latter data is also used to calculate an equivalent instantaneous Kp.

  • Kp Estimation

    The purpose of the Kp project is to estimate Kp in near-real-time using a set of ground stations that provide data with less time delay. Kp is a geomagnetic index that indicates the global geomagnetic disturbances caused by the solar wind. Currently the official index is derived using data acquired at 13 stations and is published as 3-hour values, with significant time delay.

  • Predicting Geomagnetic Activity and Storms

    The purpose of this project is to provide short-term forecasts of geomagnetic activity and storms. Currently, this project uses models that are based on the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field as input parameters to forecast Kp and Dst indices.

  • Kinematic Solar Wind Model (HAF)

    The Kinematic Solar Wind Model provides quantitative predictions of solar wind conditions at the Earth days in advance. The model is used to predict the severity of terrestrial disturbances following solar events.

  • Solar Proton Penetration into the High-Latitude Ionosphere

    The purpose of this project is to provide improved estimates of the cutoff latitudes of solar energetic protons (1-300 MeV) that precipitate into the ionosphere at high latitudes. The model is based on particle orbit integrations using an up-to-date model of Earth's magnetic field, including contributions from internal and external currents.

  • Field Aligned Currents

    This project provides predictive estimates of the global distribution of electrical currents that flow into and out of the ionosphere. These currents flow along lines of magnetic force and are directly related to ionospheric convection and precipitation as well as the ionospheric Hall currents responsible for Ground Induced Currents (GICs). The model is based on one-hour accumulations of measurements from the Iridium satellite constellation and uses solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field as input parameters.

  • HF-Radar Clutter

    The primary purpose of the HF-Radar Communication/Propagation software is to provide AFWA an ASCII data file containing information about the location of the Clutter Boundary and the capability to read this data file.

  • Radiation Belt Environment

    The purpose of this software is to provide forecasts of the Radiation Belt Environment (RBE). This RBE model estimates the electron and proton fluxes and pitch-angle distributions from 2 to 10 Earth radii, with energies ranging from 10 keV to 5 MeV. The model is performing a real-time prediction and soon will be extended to forecast the radiation belt environment 24 hours ahead of time.

  • Coronal Mass Ejection

    The purpose of the Coronal Mass Ejection Forecasting project is to identify times when the Sun is likely to produce Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that will travel to Earth and cause space weather disturbances. The forecasting is based on the knowledge that solar active regions appear sigmoidal ("S"-shaped) beginning 1 to 3 days before a CME. When added to the 2 to 3 day travel time of a CME from Sun to Earth, the forecast roughly doubles the warning of disturbed space weather.

  • Real-time Interplanetary Shock Prediction (RISP)

    The Real-time Interplanetary Shock Prediction (RISP) system analyzes particle data collected by the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft and predicts the incidence of interplanetary shocks. First, it searches for the signature of an impending shock. If an impending shock is detected, the system switches to forecast mode and generates predictions every five minutes for when the shock will arrive.

  • Spacecraft Charging Assessment

    Spacecraft charging can detrimentally affect electrical operations on space systems. Most communication and surveillance spacecraft are at geosynchronous altitudes, and many more such spacecraft will be deployed in the new millennium.

    A recent study [Lai and Della-Rose,2001] using four weeks of spacecraft charging data obtained on a Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) geosynchronous satellite has uncovered new evidence for the existence of a critical temperature of the space plasma electrons for a given spacecraft surface material. Below the critical temperature, little spacecraft charging occurs, while above the critical temperature, the spacecraft potential increases almost linearly.

  • Forecasting Low-Altitude Ionospheric Turbulence

    Prediction of equatorial plasma bubbles via electrodynamic coupling. Comparison of season-longitude distributions of > 8300 equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) observed during the last solar cycle with predictions of two simple models.

  • ExB Drift

    The purpose of the ExB Drift project is to provide realistic daytime, vertical ExB drift velocities in the equatorial ionospheric F-region. The model is based on pre-determined linear, least squares H vs ExB drift velocity relationships. The inputs to the model are the H values from two ground-based magnetometers, one located on the magnetic equator and the other 7 to 10 degrees away in dip latitude. The output is the vertical ExB drift velocity as a function of local time over the 24 hour day.

  • Auroral Intensity and Precipitating Particle Flux Relationship

    Precipitating particle data from the DMSP F12 and F13 satellites has been merged with image intensities from the Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) on the Polar satellite. UVI and EC imagers were combined within single transpolar passes of the DMSP F12 and F13 satellites. Intensities of the pixels were then averaged into 1° x 1° bins along the satellite tracks, thus generating along-track intensity profiles. Similarly, particle data were averaged into 1° bins along the trajectory to form energy precipitation profiles. The inbound (ascending in latitude) and outbound (descending in latitude) peaks in each set of profiles were isolated in order to compare imager photon flux with particle energy flux. The high correlation in the pre-midnight sector suggests that UVI fluxes can be directly calibrated to measure energy input without the additional complication of modeling. Using this calibration, global maps of energy input into the aurora may be derived empirically.

  • Prediction of Energetic Electron Flux at the Geostationary Altitude

    The purpose of this software is to provide forecast up to 27 days in advance the daily averaged 0.7-1.8 MeV and >2 MeV electron flux at the geostationary altitude based solely on the incoming solar wind parameters.

  • High Latitude Scintillation Specification and Short-Range Forecasting

    This system combines scintillation measurements from ground-based receivers with convection information from the SuperDARN radar network to display scintillation conditions over the polar cap and high-latitude ionosphere. Large-scale plasma density features appearing in the total electron content are correlated between different satellite links and an empirical model of scintillation region shapes and sizes applied to provide coverage over large areas of the polar region from as few as 5-10 links. All measurements are mapped into the plasma reference frame and then propagated in accord with the observed convection pattern to increase the model coverage and provide short-term forecasts for downstream locations.

  • Real-time Upstream Monitoring System (RUMS)

    The Real-time Upstream Monitoring System (RUMS) uses particle data collected by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft and to predict occurrences of interplanetary shocks. As new data arrives in a real-time stream, RUMS looks for the signature of an impending shock. If such a signature is detected and validated, the system enters forecast mode, generating time-to-arrival predictions every five minutes as well as an operational display.

  • Kp and Auroral Oval Nowcast

    Formula for converting the GOES magnetometer measurements of magnetotail stretching into nowcast Kp and b2i.

  • Active Region Helicity Injection

    The purpose of the Active Region Helicity Injection project is to measure the magnetic helicity injection rate in solar active regions and establish the quantitative properties that indicate the likelihood of future solar events with space system impacts. Helicity, or twist, of solar magnetic fields is a natural consequence of the flow of electric currents. Helicity represents free energy that can be released as heat or particle acceleration in flares, and as eruptions such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).

  • Meteor Shower Display

    Unlike the standard Two-Line Element sets for earth satellites, no such standard parameter set is yet widely available for meteor streams. A paper by P. Jenniskens (1994) was found that includes a set of parameters that may be used to compute shower activity over time. 50 meteor showers were included in the tables of parameters in that paper, not all with all the values needed to compute an activity level. A simple text file format was used to store the available parameters and software to read them was developed. This approach allows new streams to be added easily if the needed parameter values are known (that's the main limitation to adding new showers).

    The Meteor Shower Display system will display the start and end times of meteor showers and plot activity curves for a given time period. It also can show the side of the earth facing a specified shower and display the shower orbits in space.


  • High-Frequency (HF) Radar Propagation

    The primary purpose of the High-Frequency (HF) Radar Propagation system is to provide AFWA the capability to monitor high-latitude HF propagation conditions. The system uses real-time SuperDARN HF radar data to determine ionospheric F-region critical frequencies and MUF as a function of range from each radar.


  • Forecasting of Major Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections

    The purpose of this project is to provide one-day forecasts of major (X- and M- class) solar flares and assocaited coronal mass ejections(CMEs). The viability of the helical kini instability in solar ARs is also assessed. The model is based on the calculation of active-region potential magnetic energies and the estimations of the signs of twist and writhe and is applied to the latest full-disk line-of-sight magnetogram images from SoHo/MDI.





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