UPOS: Predicting Geomagnetic Activity and Storms

Predicting Geomagnetic Activity
and Storms

As technology advances, space weather prediction has become increasingly important to many human activities, e.g., communications, navigation systems, satellites, power grid, space travel, etc. Kp and Dst are two of the most common indices used to indicate the severity of disturbances in near-Earth space. For the past few years, the ACE spacecraft, located at the L1 point, has been reliably providing solar wind measurements up to approximately 45-60 minutes in advance of its arrival at Earth. Kp and Dst models based on solar wind input can use ACE observations to make short-term forecasts of these two indices.

Forecasting Kp

The purpose of the Forecasting Kp project is to provide a predicted Kp using inputs from the ACE satellite. Kp is an index that is commonly used to characterize the global planetary geomagnetic disturbances caused by the solar wind over a 3-hour period. Many activities in -- as well as models of -- the near-Earth space environment rely on Kp indices to indicate the severity of the space environment. Since the official Kp index is published with significant time delay, this application will enhance the timeliness of available information about geomagnetic activity.

Forecasting Dst

The purpose of the Forecasting Dst project is to provide a predicted Dst using inputs from the ACE satellite. Dst is an index of geomagnetic disturbance; in particular, it indicates the intensity of Earth's ring current. Dst is expressed in units of nanoteslas, with high Dst values indicating a calm magnetosphere and low Dst values indicating the occurrence of a geomagnetic storm. Since the official Dst index is published with significant time delay, this application will enhance the timeliness of available information about geomagnetic activity.

For science comments/questions, contact S. Wing, JHU/APL
For software comments, questions, contact J. Schofield, JHU/APL

http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/kp_dst/kp_dst.html