UPOS: FlareAndCME

Flare And Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
Forecasting

Purpose:: The purpose of the flare and CME forecasting utility is to provide a one-day forecast of major solar flares (X- and M- class) and associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs). To calculate the flare likelihood we rely on our statistical study of the potential magnetic energy in solar active regions (ARs) and its relation to the flare productivity in ARs. Major flares are most frequently associated to CMEs (95% for X-class flares and 67% for M-class flares) so forecasting a major flare we indirectly forecast an active-region CME.

In addition, we investigate the likelihood of the helical kink instability in CME-prolific ARs. This is achieved by comparing the sign of twist and writhe in an AR. Like signs means that the helical kink instability is likely as opposed to the instability being unlikely for unlike signs of twist and writhe in the AR. The twist and writhe are calculated assuming a current-free point-to-point mapping of the magnetic connectivity in the studied AR. Forecasting of major solar flares and CMEs is useful for an assessment of the anticipated space conditions for timescales ranging for a few hours to a few days. Our forecast is both global (for the entire visible solar disk) and local (for each AR found on the disk). Our tactic is to use the latest existing ARs on the disk (see the sample image on the side). Calculations apply to a zone of 41 degrees EW heliographic longitude (dashed circle in the image) to minimize the impact of projection effects in the analysis of the active-region magnetic fields.
Input:: Latest full-disk magnetogram file from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO), and the respective active-region number file from the Space Environment Center (SEC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Output:: A global one-day forecast for the visible solar disk and a local forecast for each of the identified solar ARs.

Documents: (Adobe Acrobat PDF): Requirements Document; User's Guide; Design Document; Support Plan; Version Description; ReadMe File

The Application:: Latest Full Disk Forecast

For science comments/questions, contact Manolis Georgoulis, JHU/APL
For software comments/questions, contact Linda Burke, JHU/APL

http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/flareAndCME/