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We have recently added the China and Mongolia regions to the Dust Transport Application (DTA). The Ginoux global dust database has been supplemented with new dust sources within this region. Over the Winter and Spring 2003, we will be working on model verification. We will compare daily forecast runs for China with reported occurrences of dust storms. We our undertaking a collaborative study with UAF and Dr. Cathy Cahill to compare aerosol predictions with ground based sensor measurements. Last year(2002) AFWA made a 60 day model comparison between DTA forecasts and satellite and ground observations of dust. The study covered Africa and the Middle East theater T9, and Southwest Asian theater, T4. It was found that the dust model was able to make 36 hour forecasts of dust storms and dust obscured conditions with an average probability (POD) of 62% with a false alarm ratio (FAR) of only 15% in T9, and 61% POD and 10% FAR in theater T4. Long range model forecast (60 to 72 hour) were 59% POD in theater T9 and 52% in theater T4, with 18% and 14% FAR ratios respectively. |
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For comments, questions, contact
B. Barnum,
JHU/APL
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