- Purpose:
-
Satellites in space are instrumental in providing surveillance, communication,
and navigation capability. Geomagnetic disturbances,
which are related to enhancements of MeV electron intensity at geostationary
orbit, can hamper these operations and can cause malfunction or failure of
satellites and their onboard sensors. Accurate prediction of daily-averaged MeV
electron intensity at geostationary orbit can be used to monitor the daily dosage of
these MeV electrons for geostationary satellites. A recent significant advance in
predicting the daily averaged intensity of energetic electrons at geostationary
orbit was reported by Li et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1887-1890, 2001)
based solely on real-time solar wind parameters and a simple radial diffusion model.
This model gives predictions 1-2 days in advance. This project has extended the work
of Li et al. by improving the diffusion coefficient used and by providing predictions
27 days in advance.
- Input:
-
Near-real time ACE data including IMF, solar wind bulk speed and proton density
- Output:
-
Predictions of daily averages of MeV electron fluxes at geostationary orbit 27 days in advance
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