To answer the last question, we separated the observations taken in
sunlight from those in darkness. Remember that the aurora occurs at high
latitudes, so that for example in the summer hemisphere it might be sunlit
even at midnight, or in the winter hemisphere in darkness even at noon. So
here is a direct comparison of the probability of observing intense aurora
in darkness and sunlight respectively:
The probability of finding northern lights in darkness
The probability of finding northern lights in sunlight
Darkness wins by a wide margin (a factor of 3 in the peak dusk-to-midnight
sector).
So how do you explain it all?
Currents (indirectly driven by the solar wind) want to flow between
near-Earth space and the ionosphere. But for a current to flow, conductivity
must exist. This conductivity can be created in two ways, from ultra-violet
sunlight and from the diffuse aurora. Below is a figure giving our estimate
of the typical conductivity around equinox from these two sources:
The conductivity of the ionosphere with currents from space superposed
(red lines).
The only place where conductivity is low, but the currents are required by
solar wind-Earth interaction is from dusk to dawn. Therefore this is the
region that is unstable to the creation of discrete aurora. Once the intense
northern lights do appear, they themselves create the conductivity needed to
solve the problem, and allow the currents to flow.
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